Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 74.7%
Pronosticadores
174
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado7 may 23, 2:00 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate Exceed Dotcom Bubble Levels before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2029
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.3% in June 2027?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.2% in September 2026?
ForecastExReglas
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- Update 2023-12-06: I appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:
- This only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate.
- If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts.
- I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 75% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE