Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 87.7%
Pronosticadores
38
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado10 jun 24, 16:08 UTC2 ene 30, 15:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
The detonation of nuclear weapons in combat has not occurred since World War II, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the last instances.
- However, the threat of nuclear conflict remains due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like North Korea, Russia, and the United States.
- International treaties and diplomatic efforts aim to prevent nuclear proliferation and use.
- Historical Context: No combat use since 1945; numerous close calls and tensions during the Cold War and beyond.
- Factors to Consider: Geopolitical developments, arms control treaties, and regional conflicts.
- Data Sources: Reports from international bodies like the IAEA, UN, and strategic think tanks.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030??
- Está previsto que Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The detonation of nuclear weapons in combat has not occurred since World War II, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the last instances.