Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.9%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado7 ene 26, 13:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNuclear war in next 5 years?
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Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketReglas
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
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- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.