Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 69.1%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado28 ene 23, 17:33 UTC31 dic 42, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.
- At least 25,000 of these people should be killed by other US residents as opposed to being killed by people from another nation.
- Deaths by drones or other AI-controlled weapons count if and only if they were intentionally caused by US residents.
- Edit 3rd Feb 2023: Something will count as a civil war if all of the following are true:
- there is military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 69% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043??
- Está previsto que Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2042.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.