Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3?
GeopolíticaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualThird World War 51%
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado9 abr 24, 13:44 UTC1 ene 01, 4:59 UTC
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Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?
- Resolves to whichever is considered to happen first, according to things like news outlets, Wikipedia, other bets, etc. For example, if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un resolves to Yes first, I would most likely resolve this to Yes for Civil War 2:
- "Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Third World War al 51% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3??
- Está previsto que Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2101.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?