Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak
Salud y medicinaOne-OffGeopolíticaCiencia6m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualAny EU country 100%Líder entre 12 opciones
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multiple choice
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Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado19 may 26, 9:46 UTC29 abr 27, 22:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Outbreak currently in DR Congo and Uganda.
- States resolve YES when their health authorities or WHO reports a local case and resolve NO when the outbreak is declared over by WHO / Africa CDC.
- People who are transferred with a suspected or confirmed infection for treatment to another state under medical supervision are excluded (e.g. western states repatriating their infected citizens does not resolve, a person travelling who is already infected but without being already suspected and is diagnosed in their destination does resolve)
- Cases confirmed to be from a different outbreak do not count.
- Close date will be extended, until the outbreak is declared over.
- Some background: https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-play-catch-startling-ebola-outbreak
