Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualObserving a temporary ceasefire with US & Israel 59.8%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado23 mar 26, 21:58 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
I'll resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and use my own judgment in the event of ambiguity.
- I may resolve to % if I feel it's appropriate.
- I won't bet.
- Specific rules:
- the named outcome
- By this I mean "strictly more friendly", in the sense that a leader who is roughly "similar" resolves no.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
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POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
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- 100,1 mil €
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- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
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- Volumen total
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- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Observing a temporary ceasefire with US & Israel al 60% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027?
- Está previsto que State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I'll resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and use my own judgment in the event of ambiguity.