Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 63.4%
Pronosticadores
155
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado3 ene 26, 8:00 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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MyriadReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if there is a change in the fundamental structure of Cuba's political system by December 31, 2030.
- Regime change is defined as the replacement of the current one-party communist system with a different form of government, whether through democratic transition, internal power restructuring, or other means.
- The resolution will be determined by credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, AFP) reporting a change in the constitutional framework, the legal status of the Communist Party's monopoly on power, or the establishment of a functioning multi-party system.
- If the Communist Party remains the sole legal party and the current constitutional structure remains intact, the market resolves NO.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Regime change in Cuba by 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 63% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Regime change in Cuba by 2030??
- Está previsto que Regime change in Cuba by 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Regime change in Cuba by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria