Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 84.8%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado18 jun 25, 15:14 UTC31 dic 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2032, Iran is recognized as a liberal democracy.
- If there is no regime change before 2027, resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on the Freedom House classification, and Free or Partially Free both count.
- If the classification changes or is not published, I will choose a similar report.
Mercados abiertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.6pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 25,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 695 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volumen total
- 6,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 107,6 mil €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Volumen total
- 1,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 104,5 mil €
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 85% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026??
- Está previsto que Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2032.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria