Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
GeopolíticaOne-OffCienciaSociedad y culturaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 60%
Pronosticadores
96
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado15 ene 23, 8:44 UTC1 ene 60, 8:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be any genetic modification which substantially reduces suffering in vertebrates by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a genetic engineering method capable of changing an adult's chromosomal sex by 2100?
Manifold MarketsBy 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
Manifold MarketsUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
KalshiWill a human clone be a registered citizen anywhere before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Century High School (MN) qualify for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027?
Manifold MarketsReglas
An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.
- This market resolves based on the "popular science" consensus at the beginning of 2060.
- (i.e. the sort of thing reported in Wikipedia and posted on Twitter by the loudest scientists.) In the United States, or whatever culture is most similar to it if it's stopped existing by then.
- If I were to resolve this at the time of market creation, it would resolve to NO, since Wikipedia stated at that time:
- Today, the scientific consensus is that genetics does not explain differences in IQ test performance between groups, and that observed differences are environmental in origin.
- and other popular science resources tended to agree.
