If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
EconomíaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 10 minutos
7 oct 26, 2:05 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Democrats or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial.
- A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the House.
