Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 19:26 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualConflict in Asia 76%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado14 oct 25, 12:46 UTC1 ene 27, 15:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolution Criteria
- Answer option "the named outcome", will resolve to "Yes" if significant military escalation has happened in any Asian countries/regions, same as "the named outcome", "the named outcome", "the named outcome", "the named outcome" will resolve to "Yes" if significant military escalation has happened in any European, American, African or Antarctican countries/regions.
- When World War happens across two or more continents listed above, all the conflict origin continents will resolve to "Yes".
- "World War" will be considered to have begun only if there is a widespread consensus among at least 5, countries or 5 major international organizations (e.g., United Nations, NATO, G7, G20) and at least 10 leading global news outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters, Associated Press, New York Times, The Guardian) that a conflict has escalated to a global scale, involving at least 2 major powers across at least 2 continents, and is explicitly referred to as a "World War" or its equivalent (e.g., "World War III").
