Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?
EconomíaGeopolíticaOne-OffEurope1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 59.2%
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado21 ago 25, 13:28 UTC31 dic 27, 14:21 UTC
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If a NATO country is invaded, will 80% (according to GDP) of the alliance support the attacked party through armed force?
- Armed force being combat equipment (guns, drones, jets, ships, etc) operated by and in the name of the supporting NATO member (not the attacked one)
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 90,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 358,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 35,8 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 548,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 29,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 17,7 mil €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volumen total
- 310,3 mil €
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- 6,5 mil €
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
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- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 59% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5??
- Está previsto que Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If a NATO country is invaded, will 80% (according to GDP) of the alliance support the attacked party through armed force?