Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.5%
Pronosticadores
28
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado5 mar 24, 12:47 UTC1 jul 28, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketReglas
Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.
- So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
- YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.