¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029?

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 83.5% a fecha de 29 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029?

Está previsto que Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029 se resuelva el 30 de junio de 2029.

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: There have to be credible sources stating that there have been at least one of:

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 83.5%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 7 horas

Desactualizado

1 jul 26, 6:03 UTC30 jun 29, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

There have to be credible sources stating that there have been at least one of:

battles between Russian military and defenders, in the target nation.
Russian troops clearly are on the other side of the border.
Even if the target country doesn't fight back, the presence of troops within their territory will treated as evidence for YES as an invasion
Russian attributed bombs or missiles or drone strikes being treated as an open war w/Russia
Other kinetic attacks.