Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.9%
Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado11 mar 26, 0:36 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China directly engages in military conflict before December 31, 2026. "Direct engagement" means Chinese military forces (PLA, PLAN, PLAAF, or affiliated paramilitary forces) initiate or participate in armed combat operations resulting in exchange of fire or kinetic action against another nation's military or civilian targets.
- Coercive military activities that do not involve direct combat—such as blockades, military exercises, incursions into airspace or territorial waters, or coast guard operations—do not qualify.
- The conflict must involve actual combat operations.
- Resolution sources: Official statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US Department of Defense, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, and major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera).
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026?
- Está previsto que China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria