🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?
Trade PolicyGeopolíticaOne-OffEurope2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89.8%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado6 abr 26, 23:43 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "YES" if a state of declared or undeclared armed conflict exists between the United States and the European Union, or between the United States and any individual member state of the European Union, at any point before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028.
- For the purposes of this market, "armed conflict" is defined as a sustained, organized, and intentional use of lethal military force by the armed forces of one party against the other.
- Minor diplomatic incidents, trade wars, economic sanctions, cyber warfare without physical casualties, or isolated border skirmishes not constituting a broader act of war do not qualify.
- Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times).
- In the event of ambiguity, the market will look for official statements from the U.S. Department of State, the European Commission, or the governments of the involved nations confirming the existence of a state of war or active armed conflict.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028??
- Está previsto que 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria