PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: September 30
Resolved: Jul 23, 2026, 11:39 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 11:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability
September 30 100%+2.3ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+75.5 pts
Market data
Updated 39 days ago
StaleMar 10, 26, 3:17 AMSep 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
September 3098%
May 310%
June 300%
March 310%
April 300%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, (48.403602° N, 37.117327° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.