PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$15.7K
Liquidity
$5.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
+2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 6:25 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhya Oblast (47.6566° N, 35.2560° E), by the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of Malokaterynivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 9% as of August 26, 2026.
- When does Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhya Oblast (47.6566° N, 35.2560° E), by the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.