PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
December 31 99%+1.8ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$783.9
Liquidity
$13.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.9 pt
Tight spreadComments
4
7d Change
+32.5 pts
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingFeb 4, 26, 12:55 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt71.3%
- New People (NL)-2.4pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4M
- 24h Vol
- $281.7K
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3124%
- October 31-2.0pt12%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December7%
- September 30,2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $22.3M
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Total Vol
- $349.9K
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- June 30,+0.5pt45.5%
- March 31,-1.5pt33%
- December 31-3.5pt14.3%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+4.0pt89.1%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt6.9%
- New People (NL)-2.3pt4%
+5 more outcomes
- Will Russia enter Hannivka by which date?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Sofiivka by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 99% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture Sofiivka by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture Sofiivka by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia capture Sofiivka by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.