Current implied probability
Kevin Warsh 100%Leader of 35 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.2M
Liquidity
$6.9M
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 74 days ago
StaleMar 4, 26, 8:55 PMOct 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Kevin Warsh100%
Judy Shelton1%
Kevin Hassett0%
Christopher Waller0%
Jerome Powell0%
Stephen Miran1%
Scott Bessent0%
Other0%
Michelle Bowman0%
Person B0%
Person C0%
Person D0%
Person E0%
Person F0%
Person G0%
Person H0%
Person I0%
Person J0%
Person K0%
Person L0%
Person M0%
Person N0%
Person O0%
Person P0%
Person Q0%
Person R0%
Person S0%
Person T0%
Person U0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
Rick Reider0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Kevin Warsh
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $5.2M | $6.9M | 74 days ago | |
 Kalshi68% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $1.2M | $69.7K | 74 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?
Closed
Resolved
Kevin Warsh (100%)
+0.1pt100%
0%
0%
+1 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$9.7M
24h Vol$1.2M
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
- Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
- Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count.
- Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
- If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Will any Fed governor leave office in 2026?
$1.1Yes: 93%FUTUUR
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Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
$0Kevin Warsh: 92%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
- Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
- Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count.
- Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
- If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S.