Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 17, 2026, 9:05 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastKevin Warsh 98.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 40 days ago
StaleApr 25, 25, 11:04 PMJan 1, 27, 12:01 AM
Trends
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Kevin Warsh99%
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Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and confirmed as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, succeeding Jerome Powell.
- The resolution will be based on the official announcement from the White House or the Federal Reserve Board.
- Jerome Powell is currently serving his second term as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, which is set to conclude on May 15, 2026.
- (investopedia.com) The Chair is appointed by the President of the United States and must be confirmed by the Senate.
- Potential successors often include individuals with significant experience in economics, finance, or public policy.