Current implied probability
Anthropic 100%+0.5ptLeader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$6.4K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 26 days ago
StaleOct 10, 25, 9:52 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Anthropic100%
Google1%
OpenAI0%
Z.ai0%
DeepSeek0%
Mistral0%
Microsoft0%
Amazon0%
ByteDance0%
Company G0%
Other0%
Alibaba0%
xAI1%
Moonshot0%
Meituan0%
Meta1%
Baidu0%
Company F0%
Company H0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Anthropic
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Which company has the best AI model end of June 2026? (LMArena)
Closed
Resolved
Anthropic (99%)
+10.2pt99%
-3.0pt0.3%
-4.3pt0.2%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast39 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
0.1 ptsClosed
Resolved
Anthropic (100%)
+77.0pt100%
-0.6pt0%
-0.1pt0%
+8 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$6.3K
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.