Current implied probability
Before Jul 10, 2026 20%-15.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$258.5
Liquidity
$3.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
19.0% / 25.0%
Spread
31.6%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 9:09 PMJul 10, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jul 10, 202620%
Also available on Polymarket
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
5.3%27d
-5.3%50%
+3.5%26%
+2.0%3%
+29 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$40.6K
24h Vol$6.2K
POLYMARKET
Also available on Manifold Markets
When will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?
6mo
3.5%
25.3%
36.5%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast8 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.7K
24h Vol$270.9
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jul 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jul 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jul 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jul 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jul 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jul 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jul 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Jul 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.