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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

2.9% (24h)AITechOne-Off16d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Anthropic
Anthropic 100%+77.0%
Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$2.5K

Liquidity

$68.5K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

5.6% / 7.3%

Spread

30.4%

Wide spread
7d Change

-1.6%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Dec 22, 25, 10:37 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

OpenAI6%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
  • If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
  • The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
  • If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,903.25+0.11%EthereumETH$1,677.30+0.13%SolanaSOL$67.79+1.20%DogecoinDOGE$0.0878+1.08%BNBBNB$606.12-0.21%XRPXRP$1.15+0.50%

Related News

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
  • If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
  • The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
  • If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.