Current implied probability
Anthropic 99%+0.2%Leader of 26 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$289K
Liquidity
$2.1M
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-1.1%
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jun 4, 26, 5:53 PMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Anthropic99%
Large trades
$9.5k98.4%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — YesRegular-Result2d ago
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — YesRegular-Result2d ago$3.0k99.4%POLYMARKETWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — Nomomo5133d ago
POLYMARKETWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — Nomomo5133d ago$1.0k99.7%POLYMARKETWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — NobagratNEbrat8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — NobagratNEbrat8d ago$1.5k97.0%POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — YesVoluminous-Subsidy9d ago
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — YesVoluminous-Subsidy9d ago$2.9k98.0%POLYMARKETWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — No0xbc3e…669311d ago
POLYMARKETWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — No0xbc3e…669311d ago$4.0k95.0%POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — Yestnl12d ago
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — Yestnl12d ago$1.4k92.0%POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — YesHarolda15d ago
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — YesHarolda15d ago$1.5k90.0%POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — Yesalwayslatetotheparty22d ago
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — Yesalwayslatetotheparty22d agoVolume trend
$289.0kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.