Current implied probability
Baidu 1%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$32.6K
Liquidity
$28.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 2:00 AMJul 27, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Baidu1%
Large trades
$1.4k99.0%
KALSHITencent — No9h ago
KALSHITencent — No9h ago$1.1k99.0%KALSHIMiniMax — No9h ago
KALSHIMiniMax — No9h agoRelated Markets
Best Chinese AI Company this month
$216Tencent: 10%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
$1.3KChina invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
$360Yes: 84.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
$1.3K#10: 99%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETSOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
$50Yes: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
$52.9Moonshot: 53%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
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