KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAlibaba 64%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$371
Liquidity
$363
Low liquidityBid / Ask
61.0% / 66.0%
Spread
8.2%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 6:30 PMJul 31, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Alibaba64%
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If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.