What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026?
7.0 pts (24h)ExchangeQuarterlyAIEntertainmentMusic2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
↑ $30 73%+7.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
↑ $30 73%+7.0ptMarket quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+29.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 8:24 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the standard output token price of Anthropic's frontier model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Anthropic's frontier model means the model with the highest score in the "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index" (AAII) column of the model leaderboard at https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models among entries listing Anthropic as the "Creator".
- The "Status" filter must be set to "Current", with "Weights", "Size", "Price", and "Reasoning" set to "All".
- Only models with a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page will be considered.
- Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify.