PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Idaho 96%Leader of 40 outcomes
Idaho 96%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$654.7
Liquidity
$839.8
Low liquiditySpread
96.5 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 1:00 PM UTCOct 8, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?
PolymarketPercent of Cattle in drought - week of October 6, 2026
PolymarketPercent of Corn in drought - week of October 6, 2026
PolymarketPercent of Milk Cows in drought - week of October 6, 2026
PolymarketWill a robot demonstrate exceptional speed, versatility, and performance in extreme environments by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNew York J: To Break Playoff Drought
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
- States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for October: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, the named outcome, the named outcome, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, the named outcome, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
- A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week.
- Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.