How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?
WeatherOne-OffAwaiting resolution
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
10 or more states 50%Leader of 6 outcomes
10 or more states 50%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$17.3
Liquidity
$37.9
Low liquiditySpread
97.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 1:00 PM UTCOct 8, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 15% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 20% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 25% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.
- Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii.
- The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
- Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.