KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Magnitude of at least 6.4 14%Market line of 10 lines
Magnitude of at least 6.4 14%Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$20.5K
Open interest
$14.1K
Medium open interestSpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Oct 7, 26, 8:00 PM UTCOct 8, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Magnitude of at least 6.0Won
Before close: 99% ·
Magnitude of at least 6.2Won
Before close: 99% ·
Magnitude of at least 5.8Won
Before close: 99% ·
Magnitude of at least 5.4Won
Before close: 99% ·
Magnitude of at least 5.6Won
Before close: 99% ·
Magnitude of at least 5.2Won
Before close: 99% ·
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 9, 2026?
KalshiHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?
PolymarketWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Polymarket8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
KalshiRules
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the United States Geological Survey
- The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Rules for each outcome
- Magnitude of at least 6.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 7.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.