PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
2400+ 100%+0.7ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$128.1K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+54.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 31, 26, 2:27 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
2750+100%
2650+100%
2700+100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time.
- If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
- Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
