Current implied probability
Burnham 9%+ 100%+48.0%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$17.2K
Liquidity
$108.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+37.0%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Trends
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Selected outcome
Burnham 9%+100%
Also available on Kalshi
Makerfield by-election margin of victory?
17.0%Closed
Resolved
Andy Burnham, ≥15% (99%)
-17.0%1%
+88.0%99%
-20.0%2%
+7 more outcomes
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$435.9
24h Vol$109.8
KALSHIRules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
- If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
- If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.