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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Makerfield by-election margin of victory?
Makerfield by-election margin of victory?

Makerfield by-election margin of victory?

17.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElection
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: Andy Burnham, ≥15% (99%)

Resolved: Jun 19, 2026, 3:29 AM

Current implied probability
Andy Burnham, 3-6%
Andy Burnham, 3-6% 1%-17.0%
Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality

32 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$109.8

Liquidity

$293.7

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

- / 1.0%

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale
May 26, 26, 5:00 PMJun 18, 27, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Andy Burnham, 3-6%
Andy Burnham, 3-6%
-17.0%
1%
Andy Burnham, ≥15%
Andy Burnham, ≥15%
+88.0%
99%
Andy Burnham, 6-9%
Andy Burnham, 6-9%
-20.0%
2%
Andy Burnham, 9-12%
Andy Burnham, 9-12%
-16.0%
2%
Andy Burnham, 0-3%
Andy Burnham, 0-3%
-9.0%
1%
Robert Kenyon, 3-6%
Robert Kenyon, 3-6%
-2.0%
1%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory

Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory

48.0%
Burnham 9%+
Burnham 9%+
+48.0%100%
Burnham 3-6%
Burnham 3-6%
-13.4%0%
Kenyon <3%
Kenyon <3%
-5.5%0%

+5 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$62.3K
24h Vol$17.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Burnham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Burnham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Burnham wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Burnham does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Burnham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Burnham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Burnham wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Burnham does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.