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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Which party will win the Aberdeen South by-election?
Manifold Markets

Which party will win the Aberdeen South by-election?

One-OffPoliticsElectionEurope6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Labour 0.2%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters

8

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

May 11, 26, 8:25 AMDec 31, 26, 9:25 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
Labour
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Reform UK
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Liberal Democrats
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Green
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Scottish National Party
0.5%

Selected outcome

Conservative99%

Rules

Which party will win the upcoming by-election in the Aberdeen South constituency?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves to the party which takes the most votes and so fields an MP to parliament.
  • Market will close at close of polls.
  • If no by-election takes place before the next UK General Election then this market willwill resolve Other.

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Rules

Which party will win the upcoming by-election in the Aberdeen South constituency?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves to the party which takes the most votes and so fields an MP to parliament.
  • Market will close at close of polls.
  • If no by-election takes place before the next UK General Election then this market willwill resolve Other.