PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability4.3% 40%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$43.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.4% / 5.3%
Spread
1225.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.5%
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 10:44 PMAug 7, 26, 8:30 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
4.3%40%
Compare venues· 4.3%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?
2.0%12d
-2.0%38%
-2.0%29%
14%
+20 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$40K
24h Vol$162
KALSHI
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?
12d
93.1%
6.9%
Community forecast8 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
- The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
- The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued.
- Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
- If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$33Jul 521d of dataJul 25
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
- The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
- The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued.
- Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
- If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.