KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityExactly 4.3% 38%-2.0%Leader of 23 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$162
Liquidity
$9.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
38.0% / 40.0%
Spread
5.3%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Dec 15, 25, 3:00 PMAug 7, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Exactly 4.3%38%
Compare venues· Exactly 4.3%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?
12d
93.1%
6.9%
Community forecast8 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
July Unemployment Rate
0.5%11d
40%
+1.0%32%
-1.0%13%
+6 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$14.7K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.4% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.5% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.6% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.7% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.8% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$162Jul 224d of dataJul 26
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Rules
If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.4% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.5% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.6% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.7% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.8% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.