Current implied probability
28°C 41.8%Leader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.8K
Liquidity
$28.3K
High liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 12, 26, 4:58 AM UTCSep 14, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
- The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
- If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
- In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
- To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No88.1%
- Yes11.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.2M
- 24h Vol
- $58.3K
POLYMARKETChina x Japan military clash before 2027?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
- 24h Vol
- $33.1K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No+0.1pt96%
- Yes-0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.2M
- 24h Vol
- $30.5K
KALSHITop Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Alibaba+12.0pt76.9%
- Moonshot+4.0pt15.7%
- DeepSeek1.6%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.3K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.0pt75%
- Moonshot-3.5pt12%
- Z.ai+2.8pt6%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.2M
- 24h Vol
- $17.1K
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- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
- Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Highest temperature in Beijing on September 14??
- Polymarket prices 28°C at 42% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Highest temperature in Beijing on September 14? resolve?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 14? is scheduled to resolve on September 14, 2026.
- How is Highest temperature in Beijing on September 14? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.