PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMichael Carbonara 78%+34.5%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$12.5K
Liquidity
$78K
High liquidityBid / Ask
74.0% / 82.0%
Spread
10.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 7:32 PMAug 18, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Michael Carbonara78%
Volume trend
$12.5kJul 234d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
- If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
- Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.