Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.5%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 9, 23, 3:51 PM UTCJan 1, 51, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on Mars, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on the Moon, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If any companies or countries gets 100 people or more to be on mars and alive by the end of 2050 this will resolve as a YES.
- If there is less than 100, it will resolve as NO.
- Any crashes or corpses will not be inuded in the final head count.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? resolve?
- Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2051.
- How is Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If any companies or countries gets 100 people or more to be on mars and alive by the end of 2050 this will resolve as a YES.