Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 74.9%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 23, 1:15 AM UTCMar 1, 55, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2055.
- For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Mars must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.6pt9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $106.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No54.5%
- Yes45.5%
- Total Vol
- $118.3K
- 24h Vol
- $30.3K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic-0.6pt58.8%
- SpaceX+0.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI-0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt16.7%
- Google+0.3pt7.8%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055? resolve?
- Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2055.
- How is Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2055.