Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 28, 26, 1:21 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the U.S. government caused ASML to halt exports of lithography systems, major lithography components, or related servicing/software to customers in China before January 1st 2029.
- This includes cases where ASML, the Dutch government, or credible reporting indicates that the halt was caused by U.S. export controls, U.S. sanctions, U.S. diplomatic pressure, threats of secondary sanctions, or a U.S.-brokered agreement with the Netherlands or ASML.
- “China” refers to mainland China, including Chinese-owned entities operating there.
- Exports to Hong Kong or Macau count only if the stated end user or intended destination is mainland China.
- Resolves YES if ASML broadly stops accepting or fulfilling China-bound orders because of U.S. action, even if the halt is temporary or framed as a licensing suspension.
- A halt affecting only a narrow subset of already-restricted tools, such as EUV systems that ASML was already barred from selling to China, is not sufficient unless it represents a materially broader halt than the restrictions in place at market creation.
