Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.7%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Nov 1, 26, 1:57 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 Index's closing value on Nov 30 2026, is within 1% of its all-time high.
- If the market reaches a new all time high, that will be what the market must be within 1% of for the market to resolve to "Yes." If the closing value falls outside this range, the market will resolve to "No.".
- If the market closes exactly 1% below all time high this will resolve to 50%
- AH trading cannot and will not be counted, it does not have anything to do with final close
- Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Within 1%" means: closing value > 0.99 × all-time high
