Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
One-OffEntertainmentManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.1%
Forecasters
95
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 22, 12:36 AM UTCSep 19, 49, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves to "YES" if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series of fantasy novels is released before the death of the author, George R. R. Martin.
- Mar 20, 12:36am: Trading ends on 20th September 2049 - GRRMs 100th birthday.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin? resolve?
- Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin? is scheduled to resolve on September 19, 2049.
- How is Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to "YES" if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series of fantasy novels is released before the death of the author, George R. R. Martin.