Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
One-OffEntertainmentSociety & Culture3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.3%
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102
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 23, 12:47 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter".
- The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter".
- Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes.
- If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter".
- For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.
- It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death? resolve?
- Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter".