Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
One-OffEntertainmentSociety & Culture3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.7%
Forecasters
109
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 23, 12:47 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Manifold MarketsWhen will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
Manifold MarketsWill the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?
Manifold MarketsWill Alecto the Ninth come out before The Winds of Winter?
Manifold MarketsWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiRules
This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter".
- The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter".
- Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes.
- If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter".
- For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.
- It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books.