Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?
One-OffEntertainment4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.5%
Forecasters
57
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 24, 22, 10:17 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
Manifold MarketsWill George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
Manifold MarketsWill Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Manifold MarketsWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin.