Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?
One-OffSociety & CultureCrime & Justice8mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 69.5%
Yes 69.5%Forecasters
372
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 23, 3:40 PM UTCMay 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years.
- Transfers began in 2018.
- https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952
- At the bottom of above link is the pre-analysis plan.
- Local crime measured by responses of village elders to survey questions.
- https://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya
