Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?
SportsOne-OffCricketSociety & Culture4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62%
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43
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 11, 24, 2:59 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 2:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
This question will resolve Yes if the program implemented is a full universal basic income program where every citizen receives a guaranteed income regardless of their existing income level or employment status. for the context of this question the full basic income will have to be higher than the current International Poverty Line (IPL) defined by the World Bank according to the status of the income of the country adjusted for Purchasing power parity. currently its "a global absolute minimum, to $2.15 per day (in PPP).
- In addition, as of 2022, $3.65 per day in PPP for lower-middle income countries, and $6.85 per day in PPP for upper-middle income countries."
- Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about Canada's 'Guaranteed Basic Income' (GBI), the creator has clarified that the official name of a program does not matter.
- The market can resolve to YES if a program like Canada's GBI is implemented, as long as it meets the market's core criteria: being guaranteed for every citizen regardless of their existing income level or employment status.
- Update 2025-11-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the methodology for determining if a UBI program meets the income threshold:
- The nominal payment amount must be converted to PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) equivalent using the country's PPP conversion factor