Will the global far-right alliances abolish and defunct all prediction markets before 2040?
CryptoOne-OffPoliticsRegulationGeopolitics13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo, global far-right alliances will not achieve sufficient unified power to ban prediction markets. 68.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+18.7 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 1, 26, 8:19 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice market where each added answer resolves independently:
- Each answer corresponding to an action, entity, or condition will resolve YES if, prior to January 1, 2040, that condition is met according to credible international reporting, official government/treaty publications, or observable market operations.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- If an option specifies that all prediction markets are abolished and rendered defunct globally:
- It resolves YES only if major public prediction market platforms (including centralized and decentralized platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, or their primary successors) are universally banned, blocked, or effectively shut down worldwide through coordinated international action, and no major legally operating or actively trading public prediction market survives.
